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The Guardian // World // Europe

Trump’s ‘idiotic’ and flawed tariff calculations stun economists

Thursday 3rd April 2025, 1:38PM

‘Willing sycophants’ came up with simplistic formula that has thrown global economy into disarrayUS politics live – latest updatesUK politics live –latest updatesWaving a big chart as a prop in the White House Rose Garden, Donald Trump suggested his new tariff plan was simple: “Reciprocal – that means they do it to us, and we do it to them. Very simple. Can’t get simpler than that.”Perhaps a bit too simple. The method used to calculate the most important numbers in international trade, politics and economics has left some of the world’s leading experts shocked.Goods trade deficit: $291.9bnTotal goods imports: $438.9bnThose figures divided = 0.67, or 67%And halved = 34%Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the US and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing. Continue reading...

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