Federal election 2025: Dutton sees path to minority government, while both leaders declare they can win majority — as it happened

We're going to wrap up today's live blog here — thanks so much for joining us.

We'll be back early tomorrow morning to keep you in the loop as Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton criss-cross the country in the battle for The Lodge.

In the meantime, why not take a look back at more of today's federal election coverage at our Australia Votes page below?

Take a deep breath, and say it with me — just 35 more days until polling day.

Catch you tomorrow.

 Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is rounding out the day by appearing with Eden-Monaro MP Kristy McBain in Bega, where he takes questions from local media.

It's grey and drizzly, but the PM appears upbeat as he talks up a grab-bag of Labor policies and boasts that the government's newly announced funding of the Bega War Memorial Pool went through the budget process well before this election campaign.

The prime minister has left Queensland, flying out of Bundaberg earlier this afternoon (as did the press pack).

Anthony Albanese has one more event scheduled today — a visit to the Bega War Memorial Pool with Eden-Monaro MP Kristy McBain.

Nationals leader David Littleproud says the response to the flooding currently impacting his electorate of Maranoa "should match what was required in the 2019 floods" that struck north-west Queensland.

"Immediate, large-scale support is desperately needed for western Queensland," he says.

"This disaster requires a bipartisan approach, to ensure locals get the assistance they need. We back any measure in relation to providing support, including the request of the Australian Defence Force, if that is made by the Queensland government."

Littleproud says he's spoken with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Queensland Premier David Crisafulli to thank them for working together to ensure Category D funding for flood-impacted victims will be provided by the federal government, plus $2.5 million in joint funding to drop fodder for impacted cattle.

"The full extent of the damage is still unknown but it's important my community knows they are not alone during this crisis," he says.

"Our outback locals are some of the most resilient people in Australia, but at times like this, they need to know that there is support available and I thank the government for working with me to ensure this will be provided."

Increased security measures have been put in place around Darwin Harbour due to the presence of a US nuclear submarine which has docked near a Chinese-owned port.

The USS Minnesota is visiting the Northern Territory capital along with another US logistics vessel, the USS Emory S. Land, after conducting exercises out of Western Australia's HMAS Stirling naval base.

Defence Minister Richard Marles, who greeted American sailors on the submarine earlier today, won't say if the Trump administration has expressed concerns about the continuing lease of Darwin Port by Chinese-owned company Landbridge.

"With additional security that's been provided by the Northern Territory government, by ourselves, [and] with the Americans' own security, they were very complimentary about this specific visit and the way in which they have been handled," Marles says.

"So that's very important, and we're very pleased in that sense that this visit is going off in the way that it is."

National Party leader David Littleproud is in his electorate of Maranoa in western Queensland today, which has been hit by record flooding.

Speaking from Quilpie, Littleproud tells the ABC he's concerned about what's going to happen in Thargomindah tonight.

"I spoke to the mayor, Tractor Ferguson, there this morning, and as he quoted it to me, this is a monster that's coming his way, and they're putting up a levee as we speak," he says.

"The stock losses [in Quilpie] and right up towards Winton are going to be enormous — this is a repeat of the north-west Queensland floods of 2019."

Asked whether the Coalition plans to release the modelling of its gas reservation plan reportedly produced by Frontier Economics, Littleproud echoes earlier statements by Peter Dutton that "there'll be plenty of experts that have run the ruler over what we are saying".

"You only have to look to the lived experience of the all-renewables approach that we're going [with] at the moment, that we're continuing to see the price go up," he says."

"You can only fix this if you get supply in to reduce the price."

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has been heckled by a climate protester at a campaign event for the second time today.

Dutton was greeting supporters at Golden Lane — a Chinese restaurant in the Brisbane suburb of Sunnybank — when the event was briefly disrupted by a protester who yelled out "Stop lying!" before being bundled out by security.

It's unclear how she gained access to the event.

The opposition leader later pledged $225,000 to the Chinese Museum of Queensland to improve its website and take the first steps towards its goal of building a physical museum in Brisbane.

"The Chinese Museum of Queensland is a testament to the achievement of modern Australia and the significant contributions Chinese Australians have made to our country," he said.

Golden Lane is located in the seat of Moreton, held by retiring Labor MP Graham Perrett.

Both the LNP and the Greens have the electorate in their sights.

It's been a pretty comfortable start to the election campaign for Anthony Albanese.

Flanked by the treasurer, Jim Chalmers — who happens to be arguably the best communicator in his team — the PM travelled to Peter Dutton's backyard to kick off his re-election bid.

It's a long way from how things were this time three years ago.

In his first press conference of the last campaign, Albanese totally bungled a question on the RBA cash rate, and derailed his campaign in its first few hours.

It took a long time to recover, and a mid-campaign break after being struck down with COVID wound up seeming particularly helpful.

Labor's campaign this time around seems designed to be very far from those memories.

He's spent his first full day on the campaign trail visiting two seats it would take a miracle for Labor to flip, trying to project as much confidence as possible.

And having Chalmers fielding questions helps remind voters there's more to Labor than just the PM, who polls suggest doesn't carry the popularity this time as he did going into the last campaign.

When asked about his disastrous start to the 2022 campaign, he explicitly turned to the strength of his senior colleagues, pointing also to Health Minister Mark Butler while conveniently forgetting the name of Butler's Coalition counterpart (Anne Ruston).

If it was a genuine lapse of memory, it's not one he'll be kicking himself about like last time around.

The federal election has been called, and Australia's political parties have begun putting the hard sell on the voting public.

Here, ANU professor Mark Kenny discusses what strategies the major parties will use.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles is being quizzed on the Port Darwin lease.

A 99-year lease was granted to Chinese-owned Landbridge Group in 2015.

"The port should never have been leased in this way, and that's been our position from the get-go," he says.

He tells reporters how the lease is managed is a matter for the NT, but "we keep engaging with the Northern Territory government on this issue".

He refuses to be drawn further on discussing whether the federal government would intervene.

We're heading to another press conference — this time in Darwin with Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles.

They come thick and fast on the election campaign!

Marles announced a $10 million commitment to establish a community hub in Zuccoli if Labor is re-elected.

He said it was a recognition by the Albanese government of the needs of local communities.

In case you missed it, independent MP Andrew Gee — formerly of the Nationals — seemed to have committed a familiar social media faux pas yesterday, when his official Facebook account replied to its own post in what appeared to be an attempt to impersonate a constituent.

"Thank you Andrew Gee MP I am new to the area and have received multiple texts from the Nationals and seen nasty ads in the paper from the Teal mob, it has helped me see who is the good guy!" the comment said.

To make matters worse, the original post was calling out his former party for "dirty tactics" in the election campaign.

The comment was soon deleted, but the original post remains live — and a spokesman for Gee's campaign later blamed a staffer for the blunder.

"The comment was posted without Mr Gee's knowledge by a new and inexperienced member of the campaign team who had access to the page, and knows it was an extremely disappointing and unacceptable thing to do and which Mr Gee does not condone, approve of or support under any circumstances," the spokesman said, according to The Daily Telegraph.

"The team member has expressed genuine remorse and distress, their duties have now been modified so it won't happen again and we're providing appropriate levels of care and support."

Of course, I can't help but be reminded of the legendary post from now-shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, who congratulated himself during the 2019 campaign by commenting "Fantastic. Great move. Well done Angus" on one of his own videos.

Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong has taken a few shots at Opposition Leader Peter Dutton over his foreign policy and the party's gas reserve plan.

"Peter Dutton gave a so-called foreign policy speech last week — ... he didn't mention Japan, Korea, China, India, Indonesia, he actually didn't mention ASEAN at all, which is really quite... shows you what the map of the world, according to Peter Dutton, might look like," she says.

 Wong turns her sights to his energy policies.

First, she says Resources Minister Madeleine King has secured "six times more gas supply for the domestic market" than Dutton's gas reserves plan promises to achieve.

She adds that Dutton "really wants you to believe he cares about domestic gas".

"Well, he voted against price caps, he voted against the code of conduct, which has enabled more gas to be supplied to the Australian market. 

"This is Peter Dutton re-heating a failed Scott Morrison announcement."

Let's dash over to Perth now, where Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong is speaking.

She tells those present that the most recent round of tax cuts should not be considered in isolation.

"[They] build on the tax cuts we have already put in place," she says.

"So in total, when you add up what we've done and the two rounds of tax cuts we are proposing, should we be elected, it is about $2,500 a year," she says.

She notes the Coalition's proposed fuel excise cuts would only last 12 months.

"But this is a bloke who has opposed every cost-of-living measure that has been rolled out, and opposes future tax cuts, and our tax cuts are permanent," she says.

"You know, you keep getting them, and we will keep building on them. That has been our record." 

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is asked what his message is to voters who have moved away from the major parties.

"You can't govern the country with 150 independents," he replies.

"You need to govern a country with a Cabinet.

"I lead a majority government with 78 seats. That has brought stability, it has brought order, and we replaced a government that was chaotic, frankly, and my government, I believe, deserves to be re-elected."

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is using his visit to the factory to highlight his government's Future Made In Australia plan. 

Among a few of the plan's main focuses is increasing Australian manufacturing.

"We want more manufacturing here, more jobs created here, we want to celebrate what is here," Albanese says.

"The world's best ginger beer, and out in the road, when you combine it with another Bundy product, the world's best dark and stormy." 

He reflects on the company's "great future" ahead.

"This company is iconic.

"It employs directly over 230 people, but indirectly, many times more than that.

"Everything from the local ginger that is grown here, through to the advanced manufacturing that we've seen here, at this facility, but also at their new facility that I opened up the road, about a year ago now."

The prime minister and treasurer have joined Industry Minister Ed Husic and Hinkler candidate Trish Mears in Bundaberg, where they're spruiking Labor's previously announced $20 million campaign to encourage shoppers to buy Australian-made products.

As my colleague Tom Lowrey mentioned earlier, they've chosen the Bundaberg Brewed Drinks factory for their photo op.

It's important to note this is the Bundaberg factory that produces ginger beer, not the Bundaberg Rum distillery a few minutes up the road (which is owned by a different company).

Either way, it's a sort of odd bookend to the morning's campaigning after Peter Dutton earlier visited the XXXX brewery in inner Brisbane.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is addressing party faithful at the Eatons Hill Hotel in his electorate of Dickson.

After being interrupted by climate protesters at his press conference at the XXXX Brewery, this gathering presents much friendlier territory.

Anthony Albanese is keeping up the campaigning in Queensland, touching down in Bundaberg on the state's east coast.

Not many have eyes on Central Queensland this campaign. Seats like Hinkler and Flynn are held on fairly comfortable margins, and Labor has had trouble making inroads up here in recent years.

Debate over the Adani coal mine cost Labor in 2019, and while the vote swung back in 2022, it wasn't nearly enough to cover the party's earlier losses.

But the PM is bringing his "Buy Australian" message to Bundy. He's heading for the Bundaberg Brewed Drinks ginger beer factory, presumably with an intent to sample the goods.

In Australia, voting entails more than just ticking a box.

But with the majority of teenagers not passing their civics test, you probably know someone who needs a refresher on how it works even if they're out of high school.

We've got a preferential system, meaning you'll need to choose who you want to represent you most, least and everything in between.

It might sound complicated, but it's actually really straightforward.

We've explained everything you need to know about it here.