The Guardian view on Trump’s raid in Caracas: oil matters, but it’s not the whole story | Editorial

<p>The seizure of Venezuelan leader was induced by the prize of petroleum, but driven by spectacle, geopolitics and domestic politics</p><p>It’s all about oil. That was the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/12/the-guardian-view-on-trump-and-venezuela-a-return-to-seeking-regime-change">reason</a> Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan leader<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/04/the-guardian-view-on-the-us-seizure-of-maduro-trump-has-turned-the-worlds-superpower-into-a-rogue-state"> illegally abducted</a> by US forces at the weekend, had given for Donald Trump’s fixation with his country. A better way to think about Venezuela&nbsp;is that oil was necessary but not sufficient. The presence of <a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-423-some-topical-material">vast reserves</a> made Mr Trump’s interest understandable – if Venezuela’s main export was bananas this would not have happened. But oil alone cannot explain&nbsp;the timing or scale of the move.</p><p>Venezuelan crude is extra-heavy as well as expensive and slow to bring online; it will not immediately transform US energy systems, nor <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/05/venezuelan-crude-oil-appeals-to-us-refineries">rescue</a> refineries that have already adapted to years without it. Instead, oil is the “prize” around which other <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-jonathan-blitzer.html">agendas cohere</a>. These include future profits for US firms; modest downward pressure on oil prices; depriving China of a meaningful ally in America’s backyard; putting pressure on Cuba; and US domestic political signalling in Florida. Each gain is small. But collectively Mr Trump could justify a high‑profile, theatrical – and unlawful – intervention even if the economic re